This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Markland, R. E. Articles by Grandstaff, P. J. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Modeling demographic-employment interactions in an urban economy

Department of Management Science

Peter J. Grandstaff

Department of Economics University of Missouri St. Louis, Missouri 63121

This paper describes a simulation model of the economy of the St. Louis Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. The model focuses on the opera tion of the area's labor market. It uses (a) an age-specific regimen for predicting changes in population and (b) the concept that the area's unemployment level is inversely related to the area's exports.

The validity of the model is tested by setting its initial conditions to the 1960 values of the vari ables in the model and running it forward to 1970. The resultant errors are then analyzed and, with two exceptions, found to be small. The exceptions are analyzed and hypotheses to explain them are outlined.

The authors conclude that the model should be useful in finding the key areas in the local economy and in experimenting with economic policies to assess the long-term impact of alternate policies on the local economy.

A systematic simulation study is then designed, and approximately 100 runs are made. Analysis of these runs indicates (a) that the transportation-equipment industry is the key industry in the area and (b) that increasing its growth rate by 2 percent annually over the USA national average for that industry, combined with a 0.1 decrease in the relative cost ratio (compared to the national average) of labor in the durable-fabrication area, would have a very marked effect in reducing unem ployment in the St. Louis area.

SIMULATION, Vol. 24, No. 2, 33-43 (1975)
DOI: 10.1177/003754977502400201


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				M. Madden Simulating interregional interaction: a demographic-economic model for Great Britain SIMULATION, June 1, 1977; 28(6): 161 - 170. [Abstract] [PDF]