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SIMULATION
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Mathematical simulation of impact of birth control policies on Indian population system

Mothiram K. Patil

Biomedical Engineering Division Department of Applied Mechanics Indian Institute of Technology Madras 600 036, India

P.S. Janahanial

Department of Electrical Engineering M.A. College of Engineering Kothamangalam, Kerala, India

Dhanjoo N. Ghista

Biomedical Engineering Department Chedoke-McMaster Rehabilitation Centre McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5, Canada

A feedback control computer simulation model of the popula tion system of India is synthesized by using system dynamics methodology. The governing dynamic equations are solved us ing continuous system modelling program (CSMP) on IBM 370/155 computer. The model, for different birth control policies, reproduces the past history of the sytem accurately. It projects (up to the year 2026) the future growth of popula tion ; birth and death rates; age structure; and total couples to be covered for (1) different intensities of birth control, (2) in crease in marriage age, and (3) better distribution of income policies.

The model could be used as a tool to evaluate alternate policies for long-term population planning and to make recommenda tions of suitable policies to reduce and stabilize the population within minimum time. This model provides national policy makers with a scientific basis to evaluate the impact of their policies and thus to select the optimal one.

Key Words: birth control policy • dynamics of population • In dian population • simulation model

SIMULATION, Vol. 41, No. 3, 103-117 (1983)
DOI: 10.1177/003754978304100303
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