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SIMULATION
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Discrete-Event Simulation Models of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria

F. Ellis McKenzie

Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Division of Applied Sciences Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

Roger C. Wong

Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Division of Applied Sciences Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

William H. Bossert

Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Division of Applied Sciences Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

We develop discrete-event simulation models using a single "timeline" variable to repre sent the Plasmodium falciparum lifecycle in individual hosts and vectors within interacting host and vector populations. Where they are comparable, our conclusions regarding the relative importance of vector mortality and the durations of host immunity and parasite development are congruent with those of classic differential-equation models of malaria epidemiology. However, our results also imply that in regions with intense perennial transmission, the influence of mosquito mortality on malaria prevalence in humans may be rivaled by that of the dura tion of host infectivity.

Key Words: Epidemiology • infectious disease • malaria • population biology • prevalence • transmission • vector

SIMULATION, Vol. 71, No. 4, 250-261 (1998)
DOI: 10.1177/003754979807100405
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