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SIMULATION
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Strategic Planning Simulation Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map Knowledge and Dif ferential Game

Kun Chang Lee

School of Management Sung Kyun Kwan University Seoul, Korea

Won Jun Lee

Department of Management University of Inchon Inchon, Korea

O Byung Kwon

School of Business and Economics Handong University Pohang, Korea

Jae Ho Han

Department of Business Administration Pukyong National University Pusan, Korea

Pyung Il Yu

Graduate School of Management Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Taejon, Korea

It is very difficult for strategic planning managers to fully understand complex chains of influence process of the changing environment on the per formance of implemented strategy. To resolve this kind of problem, this paper presents a mechanism of integrating fuzzy cognitive map knowledge with a strategic planning simulation, where a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) helps decision makers under stand the complex dynamics between a certain strategic goal and related environmental factors. We use a differential game mechanism as a main vehicle of strategic planning simulation so that the FCM knowledge-based simulation can be per formed as incorporating time-variant competition. Experiments with a set of numerical examples showed that the performance of the proposed stra tegic planning simulation mechanism can effec tively allow decision makers to build robust stra tegic planning under time-variant competitive situations, and yield very promising results in terms of performance.

Key Words: Fuzzy cognitive map • differential game • strategic planning • knowledge-based simulation

SIMULATION, Vol. 71, No. 5, 316-327 (1998)
DOI: 10.1177/003754979807100503


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