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Modeling the Ultimate Seaweed Expansion

D. Hill

ISIMA/LIMOS, FRE CNRS 2239, Blaise Pascal University, Campus des Cézeaux, PO Box 125, F-63173, Aubière, France,

P. Coquillard

Laboratoire d'Ecologie Végétale et Cellulaire, Université d'Auvergne, UMR/CNRS 6116, PO Box 38, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, Cedex 1, France

A. Aussem

ISIMA/LIMOS, FRE CNRS 2239, Blaise Pascal University, Campus des Cézeaux, PO Box 125, F-63173, Aubière, France,

J. de Vaugelas

Laboratoire Environnement Marin Littoral, Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Parc Valrose 06108, Nice, France

T. Thibaut

Laboratoire Environnement Marin Littoral, Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Parc Valrose 06108, Nice, France

A. Meinesz

Laboratoire Environnement Marin Littoral, Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Parc Valrose 06108, Nice, France

Since 1984 the green tropical alga Caulerpa taxifolia (Chlorophyta), of aquarium origin, has spread rapidly along the north-western Mediterranean sea coast. This alga was recently discovered on the Mediterranean south coast (Tunisia) and the west coast of the United States. This paper presents modeling efforts to simu late Caulerpa taxifolia expansion. Three different mod els were built; the first model is based on stochastic discrete event simulation coupled with a geographical information system. The second model uses a neural network, trained with simulation data and is consid ered as a metamodel. The third is a multimodel de signed to simulate a biocontrol. Indeed, to control Caulerpa overhang, it may be possible to use special ized predator of C. taxifolia such as Elysia subornata (Mollusca, Ascoglossa). Simulation was mandatory before any introduction to estimate the potential re duction of the colonization by C. taxifolia. Encourag ing results concerning the use of E. subornata are pre sented.

Key Words: Ecological modeling • Invasive species • Caulerpa taxifolia • Discrete event simulation • Neural networks • Multimodeling.

SIMULATION, Vol. 76, No. 2, 126-134 (2001)
DOI: 10.1177/003754970107600221
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[Abstract] [PDF]