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A Novel Small-World Model: Using Social Mirror Identities for Epidemic Simulations

Department of Computer and Information Science, National Chiao Tung University and Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Yuanpei Institute of Science and Technology, 306 Yuan Pei Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan, Republic of China, gis89802{at}cis.nctu.edu.tw

Chuen-Tsai Sun

Department of Computer and Information Science, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan, Republic of China

Ji-Lung Hsieh

Department of Computer and Information Science, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan, Republic of China

Yi-Ming Arthur Chen

Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University, 155, Section 2, Li-Nong Street, Taipei 112, Taiwan, Republic of China

Holin Lin

Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University, 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan, Republic of China

The authors propose a small-world network model that combines cellular automata with the social mirror identities of daily-contact networks for purposes of performing epidemiological simulations. The social mirror identity concept was established to integrate human long-distance movement and daily visits to fixed locations. After showing that the model is capable of displaying such small-world effects as low degree of separation and relatively high degree of clustering on a societal level, the authors offer proof of its ability to display R ₀ properties—considered central to all epidemiological studies. To test their model, they simulated the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak.

Key Words: Social mirror identity • small-world network model • multiagent system • cellular automata • public health policy • network-based epidemic simulations

SIMULATION, Vol. 81, No. 10, 671-699 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0037549705061519


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